Bitcoin short-term holders selling at a loss: What exchange inflows show

CryptoQuant recorded 46,060 BTC transferred to exchanges at a loss by short-term holders on November 10, 2026. Only about 1,700 BTC from the same holder group reached exchanges at a profit that day, producing a loss-to-profit transfer ratio of roughly 27 to 1.

Decrypt reported approximately 48,500 BTC in total short-term-holder exchange inflows over 24 hours, valued near $3.6 billion while Bitcoin traded around $74,000.

Glassnode placed the short-term-holder cost basis at $75,600 while Bitcoin traded near $74,000, leaving only about 35% of short-term-holder coins in profit. It also reported that roughly two-thirds of those coins had acquisition prices above the market price, concentrated in bands extending to $83,600.

The November 10 movement was not isolated. CryptoQuant recorded another 50,790 BTC transferred to exchanges at a loss by short-term holders on November 3. Binance received 8,114 BTC that day from coins last moved between one day and one week earlier.

The flow data measures transfers, not completed sales. Decrypt noted that the data does not establish how much deposited Bitcoin was ultimately sold. Coins sent to an exchange may therefore represent potential supply, but the supplied evidence cannot determine whether they were sold, retained as collateral or used for other trading activity.

That distinction matters for a trader comparing a centralized exchange with self-custody and on-chain perpetuals: a large deposit figure is a pressure signal to investigate, not a completed-sales total.

Three indicators can help separate a temporary capitulation event from continued distribution by recent buyers:

• Short-term-holder cost basis: Glassnode put it at $75,600 while Bitcoin traded near $74,000. Watch whether the market reclaims that level or remains below it.
• Realized losses: Glassnode's weekly market pulse found that short-term-holder realized losses outweighed realized profits, although the reading had not reached its historical low band.
• Available liquidity: Glassnode measured a $14.2 billion contraction in total stablecoin supply over the 30 days through November 9, the fastest contraction since June 2022.

For traders using leverage, the unresolved question is whether these loss-making inflows fade or continue; the transfer data alone does not answer it.